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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Roman Dolidze won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1497

Anthony SmithvsRoman DolidzeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roman Dolidze won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Roman Dolidze wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Roman Dolidze wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roman Dolidze at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roman Dolidze is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Anthony Smith has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Roman Dolidze

Blue Corner

+114

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1485

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · Aug 23

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Roman DolidzeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 24

KOvs Kevin Holland · Oct 24

vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Aug 25

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricRoman Dolidze

3.19

Strikes / min

3.19

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

44%

Strike defense

48%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

1.16

50%

Takedown defense

32%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithRoman Dolidze

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Roman Dolidze(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.4|Blue +12.4

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetRoman Dolidze

By target zone

40% acc · 53%

Head

45% acc · 61%

100% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 12%

91% acc · 39%

Leg

79% acc · 27%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

49% acc · 65%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

Ground

65% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Roman Dolidze rounds

Round 1Roman Dolidze edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Roman Dolidze edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:33Control

Round 3Roman Dolidze edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 93

Sig Strikes

100 / 185

57.3%

Sig Str %

52.3%

51 / 93

Total Strikes

103 / 188

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roman Dolidze	22 / 52	22 / 52	0 / 0
1	Anthony Smith	18 / 32	18 / 32	0 / 0
2	Roman Dolidze	48 / 73	51 / 76	1 / 2
2	Anthony Smith	11 / 16	11 / 16	0 / 0
3	Roman Dolidze	30 / 60	30 / 60	0 / 1
3	Anthony Smith	22 / 45	22 / 45	0 / 0

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14