Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Khalil Rountree Jr. won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1485
Anthony Smith
Elo1502

Anthony SmithvsKhalil Rountree Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Saturday, December 9, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Khalil Rountree Jr. won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:56

Model Prediction: Khalil Rountree Jr. wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Khalil Rountree Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khalil Rountree Jr. at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Khalil Rountree Jr. (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith
Red Corner
VS
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Blue Corner
+164
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-198
(66%)
1485
Elo
1502
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ryan Spann · Aug 23
W
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24
L
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25
latest
Khalil Rountree Jr.
oldest →
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 22
W
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Aug 23
L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 24
W
vs Jamahal Hill · Jun 25
L
KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricKhalil Rountree Jr.
3.19
Strikes / min
3.88
5.04
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
44%
Strike defense
49%
0.44
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
58%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.85Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1571 vs 1549Strikes3.2 vs 3.8Takedowns0.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.10Form0.1 vs 0.9
Anthony SmithKhalil Rountree Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Anthony Smith(10 fights)Khalil Rountree Jr.(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -17.4|Blue +17.4
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetKhalil Rountree Jr.

By target zone

27
44% acc · 57%
Head
33
35% acc · 62%
14
88% acc · 30%
Body
14
100% acc · 26%
6
100% acc · 13%
Leg
6
100% acc · 11%

By position

46
55% acc · 98%
Distance
51
47% acc · 96%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 2%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Anthony Smith rounds
1
even
2
Khalil Rountree Jr. rounds
Round 1Khalil Rountree Jr. edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:11
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 3Khalil Rountree Jr. edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
47 / 84
Sig Strikes
53 / 114
64.3%
Sig Str %
50.3%
52 / 89
Total Strikes
56 / 118
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:58

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Khalil Rountree Jr.20 / 4021 / 410 / 00
1Anthony Smith19 / 3023 / 340 / 00
2Khalil Rountree Jr.23 / 5825 / 610 / 00
2Anthony Smith23 / 4824 / 490 / 20
3Khalil Rountree Jr.10 / 1610 / 160 / 00
3Anthony Smith5 / 65 / 60 / 00

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25

Khalil Rountree Jr.

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights17