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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Walker won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1495

Anthony SmithvsJohnny WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Johnny Walker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Johnny Walker wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Johnny Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Walker at -116 American odds

+$86 profit

$186 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Johnny Walker is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Johnny Walker has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Johnny Walker

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1485

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'6"

193.04 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Johnny Walker

oldest →

KOvs Paul Craig · Jan 23

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jan 24

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25

DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricJohnny Walker

3.19

Strikes / min

3.90

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

44%

Strike defense

46%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

0.36

50%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithJohnny Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Johnny Walker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.6|Blue +9.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetJohnny Walker

By target zone

30% acc · 50%

Head

27% acc · 35%

59% acc · 26%

Body

47% acc · 10%

82% acc · 24%

Leg

91% acc · 55%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

46% acc · 88%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

Ground

83% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Johnny Walker rounds

Round 1Johnny Walker edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:22

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Johnny Walker edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Johnny Walker edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 92

Sig Strikes

92 / 192

41.3%

Sig Str %

48%

41 / 95

Total Strikes

99 / 204

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:22

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Johnny Walker	28 / 58	28 / 59	1 / 1
1	Anthony Smith	10 / 22	12 / 24	1 / 2
2	Johnny Walker	31 / 59	31 / 59	0 / 0
2	Anthony Smith	18 / 34	18 / 34	0 / 0
3	Johnny Walker	33 / 75	40 / 86	0 / 0
3	Anthony Smith	10 / 36	11 / 37	0 / 1

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights14