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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · KO/TKO

Elo1485

Elo1517

Anthony SmithvsJimmy CruteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Jimmy Crute wins(83.6%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jimmy Crute at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Jimmy Crute

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1485

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Jimmy CruteW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Dec 21

SUBvs Alonzo Menifield · Jul 23

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Feb 25

SUBvs Marcin Prachnio · Jul 25

SUBvs Ivan Erslan · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricJimmy Crute

3.19

Strikes / min

4.15

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

44%

Strike defense

42%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

4.39

50%

Takedown defense

58%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithJimmy Crute

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Jimmy Crute(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.2|Blue +32.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetJimmy Crute

By target zone

63% acc · 77%

Head

33% acc · 39%

80% acc · 15%

Body

40% acc · 11%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

52% acc · 94%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Jimmy Crute rounds

Round 1Jimmy Crute edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:02

18Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 39

Sig Strikes

18 / 35

66%

Sig Str %

51%

27 / 40

Total Strikes

34 / 57

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jimmy Crute	18 / 35	34 / 57	3 / 3	0
1	Anthony Smith	26 / 39	27 / 40	0 / 0	0

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Jimmy Crute

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10