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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · SUB

Elo1485

Elo1496

Anthony SmithvsDevin ClarkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · Saturday, November 28, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

SUB

Model Prediction: Devin Clark wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Devin Clark at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Devin Clark

Blue Corner

-139

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1485

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Devin ClarkL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs William Knight · Apr 22

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 22

vs Da Woon Jung · Feb 23

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · May 23

vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricDevin Clark

3.19

Strikes / min

3.03

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

44%

Strike defense

44%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

2.17

50%

Takedown defense

58%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithDevin Clark

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Devin Clark(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.8|Blue +10.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetDevin Clark

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

33% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Devin Clark rounds

Round 1Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:18

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 4

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

25%

Sig Str %

33%

4 / 8

Total Strikes

27 / 30

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Devin Clark	1 / 3	27 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Smith	1 / 4	4 / 8	1 / 1	1

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Devin Clark

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17