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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Smith won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1485

Elo1410

Anthony SmithvsAndrew SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:52

Model Prediction: Andrew Sanchez wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Anthony Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Sanchez at -330 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrew Sanchez has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Andrew Sanchez

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1485

Elo

1410

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Andrew SanchezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 19

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 19

KOvs Wellington Turman · Aug 20

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Jan 21

KOvs Bruno Silva · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricAndrew Sanchez

3.19

Strikes / min

4.30

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

5.10

44%

Strike defense

50%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

2.55

50%

Takedown defense

100%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithAndrew Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Andrew Sanchez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +75.2|Blue -75.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetAndrew Sanchez

By target zone

39% acc · 67%

Head

57% acc · 76%

100% acc · 24%

Body

58% acc · 11%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

41% acc · 71%

Distance

48% acc · 57%

89% acc · 16%

Clinch

60% acc · 5%

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Andrew Sanchez rounds

Round 1Andrew Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:04

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 2Andrew Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:58Control

Round 3Anthony Smith edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 100

Sig Strikes

63 / 104

50.3%

Sig Str %

59.3%

58 / 111

Total Strikes

104 / 151

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 10

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

4:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrew Sanchez	17 / 28	29 / 44	1 / 1
1	Anthony Smith	14 / 27	22 / 37	0 / 0
2	Andrew Sanchez	31 / 40	60 / 71	3 / 6
2	Anthony Smith	13 / 23	14 / 24	0 / 1
3	Andrew Sanchez	15 / 36	15 / 36	0 / 3
3	Anthony Smith	22 / 50	22 / 50	0 / 0

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Andrew Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10