← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Aleksandar Rakic won · SUB R3

Elo1485

Elo1471

Anthony SmithvsAleksandar RakicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Saturday, August 29, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aleksandar Rakic won

SUB · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aleksandar Rakic wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Aleksandar Rakic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksandar Rakic at -278 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Aleksandar Rakic has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Smith

Red Corner

Aleksandar Rakic

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-278

(74%)

1485

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Aleksandar RakicL4 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony SmithMetricAleksandar Rakic

3.19

Strikes / min

4.13

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

44%

Strike defense

51%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

0.64

50%

Takedown defense

85%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.85Δ 3.12 — meaningful gap+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony SmithAleksandar Rakic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Smith(10 fights)Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.6|Blue -13.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -144.0|Blue +144.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony SmithTargetAleksandar Rakic

By target zone

31% acc · 56%

Head

57% acc · 36%

0% acc

Body

88% acc · 16%

100% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 48%

By position

43% acc · 67%

Distance

74% acc · 57%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

40% acc · 22%

Ground

81% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Smith rounds

even

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

Round 1Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:22Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:10

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:31Control

Round 3Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:14

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 21

Sig Strikes

44 / 57

31.7%

Sig Str %

76.7%

40 / 53

Total Strikes

141 / 159

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

12:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandar Rakic	17 / 21	39 / 45	0 / 0
1	Anthony Smith	5 / 11	13 / 19	0 / 0
2	Aleksandar Rakic	9 / 12	61 / 65	0 / 0
2	Anthony Smith	4 / 8	18 / 22	0 / 2
3	Aleksandar Rakic	18 / 24	41 / 49	0 / 0
3	Anthony Smith	0 / 2	9 / 12	0 / 0

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11