Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Rocco Martin won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Anthony Rocco Martin
Elo1378
Sergio Moraes

Anthony Rocco MartinvsSergio MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Rocco Martin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Anthony Rocco Martin wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Anthony Rocco Martin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Rocco Martin at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Rocco Martin
Red Corner
VS
Sergio Moraes
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1492
Elo
1378
36
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Rocco Martin
oldest →
L
vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Sep 17
W
vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18
W
KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18
W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18
L
vs Neil Magny · Jun 20
latest
Sergio MoraesL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Sep 17
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18
W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18
L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19
L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony Rocco MartinMetricSergio Moraes
2.68
Strikes / min
2.42
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
58%
Strike defense
59%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
1.20
68%
Takedown defense
75%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1570 vs 1601Strikes32.8 vs 31.2Takedowns0.7 vs 0.9Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.45Form0.8 vs 0.7
Anthony Rocco MartinSergio Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)Sergio Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +114.5|Blue -114.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony Rocco MartinTargetSergio Moraes

By target zone

29
24% acc · 58%
Head
13
17% acc · 68%
4
80% acc · 8%
Body
5
71% acc · 26%
17
71% acc · 34%
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

48
32% acc · 96%
Distance
19
23% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Anthony Rocco Martin rounds
0
even
0
Sergio Moraes rounds
Round 1Anthony Rocco Martin edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:37
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 2Anthony Rocco Martin edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 3Anthony Rocco Martin edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:34
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
50 / 152
Sig Strikes
19 / 83
35.3%
Sig Str %
23.3%
70 / 172
Total Strikes
24 / 88
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 3
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
2:11
Ctrl Time
1:28

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sergio Moraes5 / 176 / 181 / 10
1Anthony Rocco Martin14 / 2932 / 470 / 00
2Sergio Moraes10 / 4510 / 451 / 10
2Anthony Rocco Martin19 / 7119 / 710 / 00
3Sergio Moraes4 / 218 / 251 / 10
3Anthony Rocco Martin17 / 5219 / 540 / 00

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13