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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rashid Magomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1491

Anthony Rocco MartinvsRashid MagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Rashid Magomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Rocco Martin: Well-roundedvsRashid Magomedov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Anthony Rocco Martin wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Rashid Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Rocco Martin at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rashid Magomedov has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Rocco Martin

Red Corner

Rashid Magomedov

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Rashid Magomedov

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Damm · May 14

KOvs Elias Silverio · Dec 14

vs Gilbert Burns · Nov 15

vs Beneil Dariush · Nov 16

vs Bobby Green · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony Rocco MartinMetricRashid Magomedov

2.68

Strikes / min

4.40

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

58%

Strike defense

54%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.67

68%

Takedown defense

89%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+1.35

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)Rashid Magomedov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony Rocco MartinTargetRashid Magomedov

By target zone

8% acc · 11%

Head

31% acc · 17%

100% acc · 33%

Body

80% acc · 52%

100% acc · 56%

Leg

82% acc · 30%

By position

36% acc · 67%

Distance

56% acc · 72%

67% acc · 33%

Clinch

92% acc · 26%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

even

Rashid Magomedov rounds

Round 1Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:28

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Rashid Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:52

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 3Rashid Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:41

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 42

Sig Strikes

46 / 73

43.3%

Sig Str %

59%

24 / 50

Total Strikes

72 / 100

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:01

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rashid Magomedov	6 / 14	9 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	3 / 7	7 / 12	1 / 3	1
2	Rashid Magomedov	21 / 32	32 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Rocco Martin	8 / 21	8 / 22	0 / 2	0
3	Rashid Magomedov	19 / 27	31 / 40	0 / 0	1
3	Anthony Rocco Martin	7 / 14	9 / 16	0 / 3	0

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Rashid Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6