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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1375

Anthony Rocco MartinvsOlivier Aubin-MercierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Olivier Aubin-Mercier won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Rocco Martin: Well-roundedvsOlivier Aubin-Mercier: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Olivier Aubin-Mercier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Olivier Aubin-Mercier at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier threatens submissions; Anthony Rocco Martin has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Olivier Aubin-Mercier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Rocco Martin

Red Corner

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1492

Elo

1375

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Olivier Aubin-MercierL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 16

KOvs Evan Dunham · Apr 18

vs Alexander Hernandez · Jul 18

vs Gilbert Burns · Dec 18

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony Rocco MartinMetricOlivier Aubin-Mercier

2.68

Strikes / min

2.48

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

58%

Strike defense

55%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

2.36

68%

Takedown defense

70%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony Rocco MartinOlivier Aubin-Mercier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)Olivier Aubin-Mercier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.7|Blue -117.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -197.0|Blue +197.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony Rocco MartinTargetOlivier Aubin-Mercier

By target zone

35% acc · 87%

Head

30% acc · 50%

50% acc · 7%

Body

60% acc · 15%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

88% acc · 35%

By position

26% acc · 60%

Distance

30% acc · 50%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 27%

Ground

70% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

even

Olivier Aubin-Mercier rounds

Round 1Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:56

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Olivier Aubin-Mercier edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:05Control

Round 3Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control4:15

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 41

Sig Strikes

20 / 46

37%

Sig Str %

29.7%

56 / 96

Total Strikes

47 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:11

Ctrl Time

5:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	13 / 28	16 / 32	1 / 3	0
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	8 / 23	12 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	7 / 16	30 / 43	2 / 3	0
2	Anthony Rocco Martin	3 / 8	8 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	0 / 2	1 / 3	1 / 1	0
3	Anthony Rocco Martin	4 / 10	36 / 53	0 / 0	1

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Olivier Aubin-Mercier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12