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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Rocco Martin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Anthony Rocco MartinvsKeita NakamuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Rocco Martin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Keita Nakamura wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Anthony Rocco Martin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Keita Nakamura at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Keita Nakamura threatens submissions; Anthony Rocco Martin has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Rocco Martin

Red Corner

Keita Nakamura

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1492

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Sep 17

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Keita Nakamura

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Noke · Jul 16

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16

vs Alex Morono · Sep 17

vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18

vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony Rocco MartinMetricKeita Nakamura

2.68

Strikes / min

2.23

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

58%

Strike defense

58%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.65

68%

Takedown defense

63%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony Rocco MartinKeita Nakamura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)Keita Nakamura(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony Rocco MartinTargetKeita Nakamura

By target zone

39% acc · 86%

Head

23% acc · 67%

83% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 25%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

40% acc · 88%

Distance

28% acc · 96%

44% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

even

Keita Nakamura rounds

Round 1Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:31

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 133

Sig Strikes

24 / 83

41.3%

Sig Str %

27.7%

65 / 142

Total Strikes

26 / 85

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

1:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Keita Nakamura	8 / 23	10 / 25	1 / 1	0
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	15 / 41	23 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Keita Nakamura	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 1	0
2	Anthony Rocco Martin	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 0	1
3	Keita Nakamura	4 / 24	4 / 24	1 / 3	0
3	Anthony Rocco Martin	21 / 47	22 / 48	0 / 0	1

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8