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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Rocco Martin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1361

Anthony Rocco MartinvsJohnny CaseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Rocco Martin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Rocco Martin: Well-roundedvsJohnny Case: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Johnny Case wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Anthony Rocco Martin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Case at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Rocco Martin

Red Corner

Johnny Case

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1492

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Johnny Case

oldest →

SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14

KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15

vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15

vs Yan Cabral · Nov 15

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony Rocco MartinMetricJohnny Case

2.68

Strikes / min

3.95

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

58%

Strike defense

61%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.70

68%

Takedown defense

72%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony Rocco MartinJohnny Case

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.7|Blue -131.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -302.0|Blue +302.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony Rocco MartinTargetJohnny Case

By target zone

33% acc · 85%

Head

26% acc · 55%

80% acc · 5%

Body

66% acc · 21%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

73% acc · 24%

By position

35% acc · 96%

Distance

36% acc · 99%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

even

Johnny Case rounds

Round 1Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 226

Sig Strikes

92 / 254

36%

Sig Str %

36%

83 / 227

Total Strikes

92 / 254

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Johnny Case	31 / 79	31 / 79	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	21 / 58	22 / 59	0 / 1	0
2	Johnny Case	35 / 94	35 / 94	0 / 1	0
2	Anthony Rocco Martin	26 / 83	26 / 83	0 / 0	0
3	Johnny Case	26 / 81	26 / 81	0 / 0	0
3	Anthony Rocco Martin	35 / 85	35 / 85	1 / 1	1

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Johnny Case

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6