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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Rocco Martin won · SUB R3

Elo1492

Elo1490

Anthony Rocco MartinvsFelipe OlivieriUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Rocco Martin won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:02

Style matchupAnthony Rocco Martin: Well-roundedvsFelipe Olivieri: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Anthony Rocco Martin wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Anthony Rocco Martin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Rocco Martin at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Rocco Martin

Red Corner

Felipe Olivieri

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1492

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Felipe OlivieriNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony Rocco MartinMetricFelipe Olivieri

2.68

Strikes / min

6.68

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.60

58%

Strike defense

57%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.00

68%

Takedown defense

71%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.09Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony Rocco MartinFelipe Olivieri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)Felipe Olivieri(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony Rocco MartinTargetFelipe Olivieri

By target zone

42% acc · 92%

Head

38% acc · 36%

57% acc · 7%

Body

76% acc · 32%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

88% acc · 32%

By position

40% acc · 88%

Distance

57% acc · 89%

70% acc · 12%

Clinch

71% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

even

Felipe Olivieri rounds

Round 1Felipe Olivieri edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:39

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Felipe Olivieri edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:22

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 141

Sig Strikes

87 / 150

39.7%

Sig Str %

58.3%

64 / 147

Total Strikes

94 / 159

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

58%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:01

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Olivieri	25 / 39	31 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	6 / 19	8 / 22	1 / 6	0
2	Felipe Olivieri	45 / 81	45 / 81	0 / 1	0
2	Anthony Rocco Martin	41 / 93	41 / 93	0 / 0	0
3	Felipe Olivieri	17 / 30	18 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Anthony Rocco Martin	13 / 29	15 / 32	1 / 1	1

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Felipe Olivieri

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights1