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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R5

Elo1493

Elo1491

Anthony PettisvsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at +400 American odds

+$400 profit

$500 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricRafael Dos Anjos

3.05

Strikes / min

3.48

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

54%

Strike defense

60%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.95

60%

Takedown defense

54%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

27% acc · 70%

Head

39% acc · 49%

69% acc · 20%

Body

73% acc · 30%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

90% acc · 21%

By position

34% acc · 98%

Distance

47% acc · 64%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

65% acc · 12%

0% acc

Ground

70% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:05Control

Round 4Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:51

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 5Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 162

Sig Strikes

90 / 171

33.8%

Sig Str %

56.4%

96 / 205

Total Strikes

144 / 233

0 / 1

TDs

9 / 10

TD %

90%

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

14:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	24 / 66	27 / 70	1 / 1
1	Anthony Pettis	19 / 60	24 / 65	0 / 0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	21 / 31	46 / 59	1 / 2
2	Anthony Pettis	7 / 22	19 / 35	0 / 0
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	21 / 34	31 / 45	3 / 3
3	Anthony Pettis	8 / 32	19 / 43	0 / 0
4	Anthony Pettis	9 / 22	14 / 27	0 / 1
4	Rafael Dos Anjos	10 / 17	18 / 27	2 / 2
5	Rafael Dos Anjos	14 / 23	22 / 32	2 / 2
5	Anthony Pettis	11 / 26	20 / 35	0 / 0

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32