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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1496

Anthony PettisvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Saturday, August 17, 2019Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsNate Diaz: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Anthony Pettis wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Pettis at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Pettis has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
Nate Diaz has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Nate Diaz

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1493

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 18

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Nate Diaz

oldest →

SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricNate Diaz

3.05

Strikes / min

4.57

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.05

60%

Takedown defense

41%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -945.0|Blue +945.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

49% acc · 78%

Head

55% acc · 82%

83% acc · 14%

Body

70% acc · 14%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

67% acc · 4%

By position

45% acc · 67%

Distance

47% acc · 45%

74% acc · 29%

Clinch

68% acc · 38%

75% acc · 4%

Ground

69% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Nate Diaz rounds

Round 1Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:22Control

Round 2Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 3Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:49

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:48Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 133

Sig Strikes

114 / 201

50.3%

Sig Str %

56.7%

86 / 153

Total Strikes

205 / 306

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:49

Ctrl Time

5:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Diaz	22 / 42	62 / 88	1 / 1	0
1	Anthony Pettis	14 / 31	23 / 41	0 / 0	1
2	Nate Diaz	54 / 100	65 / 114	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Pettis	36 / 66	40 / 70	0 / 0	0
3	Nate Diaz	38 / 59	78 / 104	0 / 0	0
3	Anthony Pettis	19 / 36	23 / 42	0 / 0	0

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18