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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Pettis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Elo1492

Anthony PettisvsJoe LauzonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:21

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsJoe Lauzon: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anthony Pettis wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Pettis at -285 American odds

+$35 profit

$135 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis
Red Corner
VS
Joe Lauzon
Blue Corner
-285
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+258
(28%)
1493
Elo
1492
39
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19
L
vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20
W
vs Donald Cerrone · May 20
W
vs Alex Morono · Dec 20
latest
Joe Lauzon
oldest →
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricJoe Lauzon
3.05
Strikes / min
2.84
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
5.39
54%
Strike defense
54%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
2.39
60%
Takedown defense
54%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-2.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1506 vs 1540Strikes17.5 vs 12.0Takedowns3.0 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.82Form0.2 vs 0.7
Anthony PettisJoe Lauzon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Joe Lauzon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetJoe Lauzon

By target zone

8
47% acc · 89%
Head
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Body
0
1
50% acc · 11%
Leg
0

By position

6
38% acc · 67%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
3
75% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Anthony Pettis rounds
0
even
0
Joe Lauzon rounds
Round 1Anthony Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
9 / 20
Sig Strikes
0 / 8
45%
Sig Str %
0%
9 / 20
Total Strikes
0 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Lauzon0 / 80 / 80 / 00
1Anthony Pettis9 / 209 / 200 / 00

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20