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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Pettis won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1473

Anthony PettisvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1493

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricJeremy Stephens

3.05

Strikes / min

3.13

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

54%

Strike defense

57%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.10

60%

Takedown defense

61%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.5|Blue -20.5

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

26% acc · 43%

Head

17% acc · 29%

50% acc · 5%

Body

83% acc · 29%

100% acc · 52%

Leg

64% acc · 41%

By position

40% acc · 76%

Distance

33% acc · 82%

83% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

0% acc

Ground

33% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:08

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:53Control

Round 2Anthony Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns4

Control4:18

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Anthony Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:28

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 47

Sig Strikes

17 / 47

44.3%

Sig Str %

37.7%

89 / 117

Total Strikes

65 / 96

6 / 9

TDs

3 / 8

70%

TD %

43%

Sub Att

Rev

6:54

Ctrl Time

3:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	9 / 29	13 / 33	2 / 3
1	Anthony Pettis	9 / 26	37 / 54	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Stephens	6 / 11	19 / 24	0 / 0
2	Anthony Pettis	2 / 6	25 / 30	4 / 4
3	Jeremy Stephens	2 / 7	33 / 39	1 / 5
3	Anthony Pettis	10 / 15	27 / 33	2 / 5

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27