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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Anthony Pettis won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Elo1374

Anthony PettisvsGilbert MelendezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:53

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsGilbert Melendez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Anthony Pettis wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Pettis at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Gilbert Melendez

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1493

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Gilbert MelendezL4 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Oct 13

vs Eddie Alvarez · Jun 15

vs Edson Barboza · Jul 16

vs Jeremy Stephens · Sep 17

vs Arnold Allen · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricGilbert Melendez

3.05

Strikes / min

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

54%

Strike defense

63%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.64

60%

Takedown defense

71%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisGilbert Melendez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +118.9|Blue -118.9

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetGilbert Melendez

By target zone

49% acc · 87%

Head

26% acc · 59%

75% acc · 10%

Body

71% acc · 37%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

51% acc · 90%

Distance

25% acc · 56%

60% acc · 10%

Clinch

63% acc · 37%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Gilbert Melendez rounds

Round 1Gilbert Melendez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:43Control

Round 2Anthony Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 58

Sig Strikes

27 / 78

51%

Sig Str %

33%

43 / 71

Total Strikes

59 / 119

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 8

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

4:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gilbert Melendez	19 / 43	49 / 81	1 / 6	0
1	Anthony Pettis	15 / 29	22 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Gilbert Melendez	8 / 35	10 / 38	0 / 2	0
2	Anthony Pettis	15 / 29	21 / 35	0 / 0	1

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Gilbert Melendez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7