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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1480

Anthony PettisvsEdson BarbozaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsEdson Barboza: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Edson Barboza

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1493

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricEdson Barboza

3.05

Strikes / min

4.14

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

0.43

60%

Takedown defense

73%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisEdson Barboza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.3|Blue -13.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -37.0|Blue +37.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetEdson Barboza

By target zone

30% acc · 73%

Head

27% acc · 37%

71% acc · 10%

Body

58% acc · 21%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

84% acc · 42%

By position

37% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Edson Barboza rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 131

Sig Strikes

73 / 164

36.7%

Sig Str %

44%

48 / 131

Total Strikes

73 / 164

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Edson Barboza	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 0
1	Anthony Pettis	14 / 34	14 / 34	0 / 1
2	Edson Barboza	22 / 57	22 / 57	0 / 0
2	Anthony Pettis	22 / 50	22 / 50	0 / 1
3	Edson Barboza	31 / 62	31 / 62	0 / 0
3	Anthony Pettis	12 / 47	12 / 47	0 / 1

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32