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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Eddie Alvarez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1491

Anthony PettisvsEddie AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Eddie Alvarez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsEddie Alvarez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anthony Pettis wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Eddie Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Pettis at -360 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eddie Alvarez has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Eddie Alvarez

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Eddie Alvarez

oldest →

vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16

KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricEddie Alvarez

3.05

Strikes / min

4.32

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.39

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

2.92

60%

Takedown defense

92%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisEddie Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetEddie Alvarez

By target zone

42% acc · 59%

Head

33% acc · 48%

65% acc · 23%

Body

67% acc · 29%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

91% acc · 24%

By position

52% acc · 89%

Distance

44% acc · 86%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

Ground

75% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Eddie Alvarez rounds

Round 1Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 2Anthony Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 109

Sig Strikes

42 / 90

52%

Sig Str %

45.7%

109 / 164

Total Strikes

74 / 129

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 15

—

TD %

36.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eddie Alvarez	4 / 10	18 / 26	3 / 5
1	Anthony Pettis	11 / 23	35 / 47	0 / 0
2	Eddie Alvarez	16 / 44	18 / 48	0 / 4
2	Anthony Pettis	25 / 55	32 / 63	0 / 0
3	Eddie Alvarez	22 / 36	38 / 55	3 / 6
3	Anthony Pettis	20 / 31	42 / 54	0 / 0

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Eddie Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7