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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Pettis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1429

Anthony PettisvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1493

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Pettis

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 18

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricDonald Cerrone

3.05

Strikes / min

4.41

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.16

60%

Takedown defense

73%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.4|Blue -64.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

52% acc · 70%

Head

28% acc · 50%

56% acc · 16%

Body

82% acc · 29%

82% acc · 14%

Leg

93% acc · 21%

By position

55% acc · 95%

Distance

41% acc · 95%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

60% acc · 5%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 113

Sig Strikes

62 / 148

55.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

81 / 133

Total Strikes

62 / 148

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 8

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Donald Cerrone	17 / 31	17 / 31	1 / 2
1	Anthony Pettis	15 / 27	21 / 35	0 / 0
2	Donald Cerrone	20 / 52	20 / 52	1 / 2
2	Anthony Pettis	21 / 38	33 / 50	0 / 1
3	Donald Cerrone	25 / 65	25 / 65	0 / 4
3	Anthony Pettis	27 / 48	27 / 48	0 / 0

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37