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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Pettis won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1429

Anthony PettisvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:35

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1493

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricDonald Cerrone

3.05

Strikes / min

4.41

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.16

60%

Takedown defense

73%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.4|Blue -64.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

62% acc · 72%

Head

25% acc · 50%

67% acc · 22%

Body

50% acc · 25%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

50% acc · 25%

By position

62% acc · 89%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Anthony Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 28

Sig Strikes

4 / 12

64%

Sig Str %

33%

18 / 28

Total Strikes

4 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Donald Cerrone	4 / 12	4 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Pettis	18 / 28	18 / 28	0 / 0	0

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37