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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Elo1489

Anthony PettisvsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:46

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Anthony Pettis wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Pettis at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Diego Ferreira

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1493

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 18

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricDiego Ferreira

3.05

Strikes / min

4.70

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

0.82

60%

Takedown defense

57%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.3|Blue -4.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

36% acc · 55%

Head

42% acc · 72%

82% acc · 41%

Body

67% acc · 16%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

75% acc · 12%

By position

44% acc · 82%

Distance

41% acc · 64%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

60% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Diego Ferreira rounds

Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 45

Sig Strikes

25 / 53

49%

Sig Str %

50%

28 / 51

Total Strikes

43 / 74

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

45%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Ferreira	20 / 44	33 / 57	2 / 5	0
1	Anthony Pettis	20 / 41	24 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Diego Ferreira	5 / 9	10 / 17	1 / 2	1
2	Anthony Pettis	2 / 4	4 / 6	0 / 0	0

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17