Featherweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Pettis won · SUB R3

Elo1493

Elo1521

Anthony PettisvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · Saturday, August 27, 2016Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:49

Style matchupAnthony Pettis: Well-roundedvsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anthony Pettis wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Pettis at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Pettis

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1493

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PettisMetricCharles Oliveira

3.05

Strikes / min

3.23

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

54%

Strike defense

48%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

2.29

60%

Takedown defense

54%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony PettisCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Pettis(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.2|Blue +28.2

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PettisTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

61% acc · 77%

Head

40% acc · 56%

60% acc · 23%

Body

61% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

66% acc · 66%

Distance

43% acc · 66%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 20%

55% acc · 34%

Ground

55% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Pettis rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Anthony Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control2:16

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:30

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:51Control

Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:25

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 87

Sig Strikes

41 / 86

60.7%

Sig Str %

49.3%

77 / 114

Total Strikes

60 / 105

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 11

—

TD %

49.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

4:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	9 / 17	12 / 20	1 / 6	0
1	Anthony Pettis	25 / 43	41 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	29 / 63	43 / 77	1 / 3	0
2	Anthony Pettis	25 / 39	27 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Charles Oliveira	3 / 6	5 / 8	2 / 2	0
3	Anthony Pettis	3 / 5	9 / 11	0 / 0	1

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36