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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Perosh won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Elo1352
Nick Penner

Anthony PeroshvsNick PennerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · Friday, March 2, 2012Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Anthony Perosh won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Anthony Perosh wins(77.1%)

Actual result: Anthony Perosh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Perosh at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Perosh has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nick Penner (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Perosh
Red Corner
VS
Nick Penner
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1356
Elo
1352
53
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'4"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony PeroshL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Vinny Magalhaes · Aug 13
L
vs Ryan Bader · Dec 13
W
SUBvs Guto Inocente · Nov 14
L
KOvs Sean O'Connell · May 15
L
KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 15
latest
Nick Penner
oldest →
L
KOvs Cody Donovan · Dec 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony PeroshMetricNick Penner
2.27
Strikes / min
1.25
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
4.60
53%
Strike defense
38%
2.03
TDs / 15 min
0.00
33%
Takedown defense
40%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.50Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap-3.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1500Strikes17.8 vs —Takedowns1.2 vs —Sub Atts0.80 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Anthony PeroshNick Penner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Anthony Perosh(9 fights)Nick Penner(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.8|Blue -3.8
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony PeroshTargetNick Penner

By target zone

24
55% acc · 96%
Head
4
19% acc · 80%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
0

By position

2
22% acc · 8%
Distance
3
16% acc · 60%
2
67% acc · 8%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 20%
21
64% acc · 84%
Ground
1
50% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Anthony Perosh rounds
0
even
0
Nick Penner rounds
Round 1Anthony Perosh edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns2
Control2:28
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
25 / 45
Sig Strikes
5 / 22
55%
Sig Str %
22%
35 / 57
Total Strikes
9 / 26
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
2:28
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nick Penner5 / 229 / 260 / 00
1Anthony Perosh25 / 4535 / 572 / 40

Anthony Perosh

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9

Nick Penner

StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach—
Fights2