Lightweight

3 Rounds

Vinc Pichel won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1488

Anthony NjokuanivsVinc PichelUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vinc Pichel won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Njokuani: Elusive strikervsVinc Pichel: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Vinc Pichel wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at +240 American odds

+$240 profit

$340 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anthony Njokuani has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Anthony Njokuani has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Njokuani

Red Corner

Vinc Pichel

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1354

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Njokuani

oldest →

vs Danny Castillo · Dec 11

vs John Makdessi · Apr 12

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 12

KOvs Roger Bowling · Apr 13

vs Daron Cruickshank · Oct 14

latest

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony NjokuaniMetricVinc Pichel

3.94

Strikes / min

3.78

2.41

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

65%

Strike defense

54%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

2.50

53%

Takedown defense

31%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony NjokuaniVinc Pichel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Njokuani(8 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.2|Blue +134.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +270.0|Blue -270.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony NjokuaniTargetVinc Pichel

By target zone

25% acc · 67%

Head

32% acc · 39%

62% acc · 33%

Body

72% acc · 23%

0% acc

Leg

81% acc · 39%

By position

28% acc · 83%

Distance

23% acc · 23%

60% acc · 13%

Clinch

81% acc · 44%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

76% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Njokuani rounds

even

Vinc Pichel rounds

Round 1Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 2Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:03

30Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:24Control

Round 3Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

11Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 77

Sig Strikes

57 / 113

32.3%

Sig Str %

49%

30 / 84

Total Strikes

98 / 159

0 / 0

TDs

8 / 11

—

TD %

80%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

8:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vinc Pichel	16 / 28	32 / 44	1 / 1
1	Anthony Njokuani	10 / 34	12 / 36	0 / 0
2	Vinc Pichel	30 / 56	36 / 65	4 / 5
2	Anthony Njokuani	6 / 15	7 / 16	0 / 0
3	Vinc Pichel	11 / 29	30 / 50	3 / 5
3	Anthony Njokuani	8 / 28	11 / 32	0 / 0

Anthony Njokuani

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12