Lightweight

3 Rounds

Danny Castillo won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1356

Anthony NjokuanivsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Danny Castillo won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Njokuani: Elusive strikervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Anthony Njokuani has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Njokuani

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1354

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony NjokuaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Apr 12

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 12

KOvs Roger Bowling · Apr 13

vs Vinc Pichel · May 14

vs Daron Cruickshank · Oct 14

latest

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony NjokuaniMetricDanny Castillo

3.94

Strikes / min

2.57

2.41

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

65%

Strike defense

62%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

2.95

53%

Takedown defense

63%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony NjokuaniDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Njokuani(8 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony NjokuaniTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

31% acc · 50%

Head

24% acc · 33%

71% acc · 34%

Body

67% acc · 12%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

90% acc · 55%

By position

40% acc · 77%

Distance

19% acc · 24%

71% acc · 23%

Clinch

96% acc · 73%

Ground

33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Njokuani rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:18

18Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:26Control

Round 2Anthony Njokuani edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 3Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 98

Sig Strikes

33 / 71

42.7%

Sig Str %

45.3%

67 / 122

Total Strikes

59 / 102

0 / 2

TDs

6 / 18

TD %

34.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

8:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Castillo	18 / 27	21 / 30	3 / 9	0
1	Anthony Njokuani	7 / 21	16 / 31	0 / 0	1
2	Danny Castillo	6 / 24	22 / 45	1 / 5	0
2	Anthony Njokuani	20 / 41	28 / 49	0 / 1	0
3	Danny Castillo	9 / 20	16 / 27	2 / 4	0
3	Anthony Njokuani	17 / 36	23 / 42	0 / 1	0

Anthony Njokuani

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14