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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anthony Johnson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Anthony JohnsonvsRyan BaderUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:26

Style matchupAnthony Johnson: WrestlervsRyan Bader: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Anthony Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Bader at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Bader enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Anthony Johnson is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Ryan Bader has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Anthony Johnson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Johnson

Red Corner

Ryan Bader

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jan 15

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17

latest

Ryan BaderW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14

vs Phil Davis · Jan 15

vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16

KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony JohnsonMetricRyan Bader

3.25

Strikes / min

2.82

1.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.39

60%

Strike defense

71%

2.43

TDs / 15 min

3.37

77%

Takedown defense

80%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony JohnsonRyan Bader

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Johnson(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony JohnsonTargetRyan Bader

By target zone

85% acc · 100%

Head

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

Clinch

85% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Johnson rounds

even

Ryan Bader rounds

Round 1Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:13

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 13

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

84%

Sig Str %

—

13 / 15

Total Strikes

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Bader	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0
1	Anthony Johnson	11 / 13	13 / 15	0 / 0	0

Anthony Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11

Ryan Bader

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16