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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Johnson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Anthony Johnson
Elo1387

Anthony JohnsonvsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:44

Model Prediction: Rogerio Nogueira wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Anthony Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rogerio Nogueira at +540 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Johnson
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
-660
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+540
(16%)
1491
Elo
1387
42
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
198.12 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Johnson
oldest →
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15
W
KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15
W
KOvs Ryan Bader · Jan 16
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17
latest
Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16
L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16
W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18
L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19
L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony JohnsonMetricRogerio Nogueira
3.25
Strikes / min
2.43
1.83
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
60%
Strike defense
59%
2.43
TDs / 15 min
0.64
77%
Takedown defense
62%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1520Strikes21.5 vs 27.8Takedowns1.3 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.42 vs 0.17Form0.9 vs 0.7
Anthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Anthony Johnson(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +104.0|Blue -104.0
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -448.0|Blue +448.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony JohnsonTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

8
47% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

8
47% acc · 100%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Anthony Johnson rounds
0
even
0
Rogerio Nogueira rounds
Round 1Anthony Johnson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 17
Sig Strikes
0 / 2
47%
Sig Str %
0%
8 / 17
Total Strikes
0 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rogerio Nogueira0 / 20 / 20 / 00
1Anthony Johnson8 / 178 / 170 / 00

Anthony Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights11

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12