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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1490

Anthony JohnsonvsDan HardyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dan Hardy wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Anthony Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dan Hardy at +163 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Johnson has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Anthony Johnson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Johnson

Red Corner

Dan Hardy

Blue Corner

-173

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+163

(38%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15

KOvs Ryan Bader · Jan 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17

latest

Dan HardyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10

KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10

SUBvs Chris Lytle · Aug 11

KOvs Duane Ludwig · May 12

vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony JohnsonMetricDan Hardy

3.25

Strikes / min

2.46

1.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

60%

Strike defense

51%

2.43

TDs / 15 min

0.73

77%

Takedown defense

35%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony JohnsonDan Hardy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Johnson(10 fights)Dan Hardy(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +47.9|Blue -47.9

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony JohnsonTargetDan Hardy

By target zone

53% acc · 85%

Head

10% acc · 50%

Body

50% acc · 50%

75% acc · 15%

Leg

0% acc

By position

60% acc · 15%

Distance

10% acc · 50%

80% acc · 20%

Clinch

33% acc · 50%

50% acc · 65%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Johnson rounds

even

Dan Hardy rounds

Round 1Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:58

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control4:10

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:37

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 36

Sig Strikes

2 / 13

55.3%

Sig Str %

10.7%

107 / 135

Total Strikes

10 / 21

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

88.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Hardy	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0	1
1	Anthony Johnson	10 / 19	34 / 46	1 / 1	0
2	Dan Hardy	1 / 6	2 / 7	0 / 0	1
2	Anthony Johnson	3 / 8	43 / 53	2 / 3	0
3	Dan Hardy	0 / 1	7 / 8	0 / 1	1
3	Anthony Johnson	7 / 9	30 / 36	1 / 1	2

Anthony Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11

Dan Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6