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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Johnson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1354

Anthony JohnsonvsCharlie BrennemanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:49

Style matchupAnthony Johnson: WrestlervsCharlie Brenneman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Anthony Johnson wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Anthony Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Johnson at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charlie Brenneman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Anthony Johnson is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Charlie Brenneman has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Anthony Johnson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Anthony Johnson has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Johnson

Red Corner

Charlie Brenneman

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1491

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

198.12 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15

KOvs Ryan Bader · Jan 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16

SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17

latest

Charlie BrennemanL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12

KOvs Kyle Noke · Sep 12

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14

KOvs Danny Castillo · Apr 14

SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony JohnsonMetricCharlie Brenneman

3.25

Strikes / min

1.52

1.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.55

60%

Strike defense

46%

2.43

TDs / 15 min

4.23

77%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony JohnsonCharlie Brenneman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Johnson(10 fights)Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.0|Blue -137.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +92.0|Blue -92.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony JohnsonTargetCharlie Brenneman

By target zone

71% acc · 63%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 19%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

93% acc · 81%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Johnson rounds

even

Charlie Brenneman rounds

Round 1Anthony Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:15

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 20

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

80%

Sig Str %

50%

38 / 43

Total Strikes

1 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charlie Brenneman	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 1	0
1	Anthony Johnson	16 / 20	38 / 43	0 / 0	0

Anthony Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights11

Charlie Brenneman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11