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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Hernandez won · SUB R2

Elo1530

Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Elo1520

Anthony HernandezvsRoman KopylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hernandez won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:23

Style matchupAnthony Hernandez: WrestlervsRoman Kopylov: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(88.0%)

Actual result: Anthony Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -218 American odds

+$46 profit

$146 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roman Kopylov is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Anthony Hernandez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Anthony Hernandez threatens submissions; Roman Kopylov has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Roman Kopylov has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hernandez

Red Corner

Roman Kopylov

Blue Corner

-218

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1530

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Hernandez

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · May 23

KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24

vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25

SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26

latest

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24

KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25

vs Paulo Costa · Jul 25

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HernandezMetricRoman Kopylov

4.57

Strikes / min

4.54

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

51%

Strike defense

53%

5.88

TDs / 15 min

1.12

68%

Takedown defense

88%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.47Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony HernandezRoman Kopylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)Roman Kopylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HernandezTargetRoman Kopylov

By target zone

41% acc · 82%

Head

49% acc · 60%

67% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 23%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

37% acc · 71%

Distance

61% acc · 97%

80% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Hernandez rounds

even

Roman Kopylov rounds

Round 1Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:05

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 77

Sig Strikes

35 / 57

43.5%

Sig Str %

61%

39 / 82

Total Strikes

41 / 63

3 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

37.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roman Kopylov	16 / 29	21 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Hernandez	20 / 42	23 / 45	1 / 11	0
2	Roman Kopylov	19 / 28	20 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Hernandez	14 / 35	16 / 37	2 / 3	2

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12