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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Anthony Hernandez won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1530
Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration
Elo1492
Michel Pereira editorial illustration

Anthony HernandezvsMichel PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hernandez won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 2:22

Style matchupAnthony Hernandez: WrestlervsMichel Pereira: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Anthony Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hernandez
Red Corner
VS
Michel Pereira
Blue Corner
-162
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+136
(42%)
1530
Elo
1492
32
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Hernandez
oldest →
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · May 23
W
SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24
W
vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25
L
KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26
latest
Michel Pereira
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ihor Potieria · May 24
L
vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25
L
KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25
W
vs Zach Reese · Feb 26
L
DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HernandezMetricMichel Pereira
4.57
Strikes / min
4.46
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
4.40
51%
Strike defense
51%
5.88
TDs / 15 min
1.21
68%
Takedown defense
75%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.47Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1576 vs 1624Strikes4.9 vs 4.5Takedowns6.6 vs 1.3Sub Atts2.30 vs 0.80Form1.0 vs 1.0
Anthony HernandezMichel Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)Michel Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +38.0|Blue -38.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HernandezTargetMichel Pereira

By target zone

125
69% acc · 82%
Head
8
30% acc · 33%
22
92% acc · 14%
Body
16
62% acc · 67%
5
83% acc · 3%
Leg
0

By position

43
53% acc · 28%
Distance
20
44% acc · 83%
12
86% acc · 8%
Clinch
4
50% acc · 17%
97
83% acc · 64%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Anthony Hernandez rounds
0
even
0
Michel Pereira rounds
Round 1Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control1:25
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns2
Control3:18
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns2
Control4:17
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns3
Control4:35
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 5Anthony Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control2:07
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
152 / 212
Sig Strikes
24 / 53
74.2%
Sig Str %
61.8%
219 / 293
Total Strikes
29 / 62
10 / 29
TDs
0 / 1
38.8%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
15:42
Ctrl Time
0:56

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Hernandez27 / 5230 / 551 / 80
1Michel Pereira15 / 3417 / 360 / 00
2Anthony Hernandez30 / 4747 / 682 / 60
2Michel Pereira2 / 72 / 70 / 01
3Michel Pereira3 / 84 / 90 / 00
3Anthony Hernandez44 / 5564 / 772 / 60
4Anthony Hernandez29 / 3548 / 623 / 60
4Michel Pereira3 / 35 / 90 / 10
5Michel Pereira1 / 11 / 10 / 00
5Anthony Hernandez22 / 2330 / 312 / 30

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights16