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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Hernandez won · SUB R3

Elo1530

Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Elo1478

Anthony HernandezvsMarc-Andre BarriaultUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Saturday, September 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hernandez won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:53

Style matchupAnthony Hernandez: WrestlervsMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Anthony Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marc-Andre Barriault is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Anthony Hernandez has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hernandez

Red Corner

Marc-Andre Barriault

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1530

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24

KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24

vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25

SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26

latest

Marc-Andre BarriaultL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24

KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25

vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HernandezMetricMarc-Andre Barriault

4.57

Strikes / min

5.65

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

51%

Strike defense

49%

5.88

TDs / 15 min

0.34

68%

Takedown defense

68%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.47Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony HernandezMarc-Andre Barriault

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.3|Blue -52.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HernandezTargetMarc-Andre Barriault

By target zone

60% acc · 79%

Head

36% acc · 64%

100% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 36%

Leg

By position

51% acc · 46%

Distance

36% acc · 60%

67% acc · 21%

Clinch

91% acc · 40%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Hernandez rounds

even

Marc-Andre Barriault rounds

Round 1Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns3

Control3:04

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control4:06

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control1:35

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 60

Sig Strikes

25 / 53

66.3%

Sig Str %

48%

58 / 84

Total Strikes

34 / 62

8 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

70.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:45

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marc-Andre Barriault	13 / 29	19 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Hernandez	19 / 34	25 / 42	3 / 8	0
2	Marc-Andre Barriault	10 / 20	13 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Anthony Hernandez	18 / 23	31 / 39	2 / 2	1
3	Marc-Andre Barriault	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
3	Anthony Hernandez	2 / 3	2 / 3	3 / 4	1

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17