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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Hernandez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1530

Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Elo1495

Anthony HernandezvsJosh FremdUFC Prediction Result

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, April 9, 2022Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hernandez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(81.9%)

Actual result: Anthony Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Fremd threatens submissions; Anthony Hernandez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Anthony Hernandez has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hernandez

Red Corner

Josh Fremd

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1530

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24

KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24

vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25

SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26

latest

Josh FremdL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Oct 22

SUBvs Sedriques Dumas · Mar 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Aug 23

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 23

vs Andre Petroski · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HernandezMetricJosh Fremd

4.57

Strikes / min

2.52

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

51%

Strike defense

47%

5.88

TDs / 15 min

0.66

68%

Takedown defense

30%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.47Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony HernandezJosh Fremd

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)Josh Fremd(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.9|Blue -34.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HernandezTargetJosh Fremd

By target zone

63% acc · 81%

Head

43% acc · 52%

100% acc · 17%

Body

87% acc · 42%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

36% acc · 19%

Distance

43% acc · 48%

56% acc · 10%

Clinch

86% acc · 39%

92% acc · 71%

Ground

80% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Hernandez rounds

even

Josh Fremd rounds

Round 1Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns4

Control4:12

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control1:42

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:37Control

Round 3Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control4:51

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 71

Sig Strikes

31 / 54

69.3%

Sig Str %

56%

91 / 124

Total Strikes

43 / 67

8 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

76.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

10:45

Ctrl Time

2:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Fremd	16 / 30	22 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Hernandez	17 / 31	26 / 44	4 / 5	1
2	Josh Fremd	13 / 20	16 / 23	1 / 1	1
2	Anthony Hernandez	13 / 17	25 / 31	2 / 4	1
3	Josh Fremd	2 / 4	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Anthony Hernandez	18 / 23	40 / 49	2 / 2	1

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Josh Fremd

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6