Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcel Fortuna won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1363

Anthony HamiltonvsMarcel FortunaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, February 4, 2017Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Marcel Fortuna won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:10

Style matchupAnthony Hamilton: WrestlervsMarcel Fortuna: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hamilton wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Marcel Fortuna wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hamilton at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Hamilton enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marcel Fortuna has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hamilton

Red Corner

Marcel Fortuna

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1363

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony HamiltonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Feb 16

KOvs Damian Grabowski · Jul 16

SUBvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 16

KOvs Daniel Spitz · Sep 17

vs Adam Wieczorek · Nov 17

latest

Marcel FortunaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Johnson · Jul 17

vs Jake Collier · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HamiltonMetricMarcel Fortuna

3.91

Strikes / min

3.83

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

45%

Strike defense

64%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

0.45

78%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.89Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony HamiltonMarcel Fortuna

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Hamilton(10 fights)Marcel Fortuna(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HamiltonTargetMarcel Fortuna

By target zone

24% acc · 43%

Head

44% acc · 73%

67% acc · 57%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

30% acc · 64%

Distance

42% acc · 73%

71% acc · 36%

Clinch

100% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Hamilton rounds

even

Marcel Fortuna rounds

Round 1Marcel Fortuna edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 37

Sig Strikes

15 / 30

37%

Sig Str %

50%

18 / 42

Total Strikes

17 / 32

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcel Fortuna	15 / 30	17 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Anthony Hamilton	14 / 37	18 / 42	0 / 0	0

Anthony Hamilton

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights10

Marcel Fortuna

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3