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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Spitz won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1363
Elo1377

Anthony HamiltonvsDaniel SpitzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Spitz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:24

Model Prediction: Daniel Spitz wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Daniel Spitz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Spitz at +177 American odds

+$177 profit

$277 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Hamilton enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Daniel Spitz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Anthony Hamilton has 78pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Daniel Spitz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hamilton
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Spitz
Blue Corner
-192
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+177
(36%)
1363
Elo
1377
46
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'7"
193.04 cm
Reach
208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony HamiltonL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Feb 16
W
KOvs Damian Grabowski · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 16
L
KOvs Marcel Fortuna · Feb 17
L
vs Adam Wieczorek · Nov 17
latest
Daniel SpitzL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Mark Godbeer · Mar 17
L
KOvs Walt Harris · Jun 18
L
vs Tanner Boser · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HamiltonMetricDaniel Spitz
3.91
Strikes / min
2.60
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
5.30
45%
Strike defense
46%
2.62
TDs / 15 min
0.74
78%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.89Δ 3.59 — meaningful gap-2.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1475 vs 1486Strikes26.8 vs 51.0Takedowns1.1 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -1.0
Anthony HamiltonDaniel Spitz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Anthony Hamilton(10 fights)Daniel Spitz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -14.4|Blue +14.4
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HamiltonTargetDaniel Spitz

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
5
100% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
50% acc · 20%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
4
100% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Anthony Hamilton rounds
0
even
1
Daniel Spitz rounds
Round 1Daniel Spitz edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
5 / 6
0%
Sig Str %
83%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
5 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Spitz5 / 65 / 61 / 10
1Anthony Hamilton0 / 10 / 10 / 00

Anthony Hamilton

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights10

Daniel Spitz

StanceOrthodox
Height79.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights4