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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Hamilton won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1363
Elo1361

Anthony HamiltonvsDamian GrabowskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hamilton won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:14

Style matchupAnthony Hamilton: WrestlervsDamian Grabowski: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hamilton wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Anthony Hamilton wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hamilton at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Hamilton enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Anthony Hamilton is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Damian Grabowski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Anthony Hamilton has 78pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hamilton
Red Corner
VS
Damian Grabowski
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1363
Elo
1361
46
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony HamiltonL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Feb 16
L
SUBvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 16
L
KOvs Marcel Fortuna · Feb 17
L
KOvs Daniel Spitz · Sep 17
L
vs Adam Wieczorek · Nov 17
latest
Damian GrabowskiL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 16
L
vs Chase Sherman · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HamiltonMetricDamian Grabowski
3.91
Strikes / min
4.00
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
7.65
45%
Strike defense
51%
2.62
TDs / 15 min
0.00
78%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.89Δ 4.54 — meaningful gap-3.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1487Strikes38.2 vs 1.0Takedowns1.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -1.0
Anthony HamiltonDamian Grabowski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Anthony Hamilton(10 fights)Damian Grabowski(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -15.0|Blue +15.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HamiltonTargetDamian Grabowski

By target zone

8
53% acc · 89%
Head
1
33% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 11%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

3
50% acc · 33%
Distance
0
0% acc
6
60% acc · 67%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Anthony Hamilton rounds
0
even
0
Damian Grabowski rounds
Round 1Anthony Hamilton edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
9 / 16
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
56%
Sig Str %
33%
11 / 18
Total Strikes
2 / 4
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damian Grabowski1 / 32 / 40 / 00
1Anthony Hamilton9 / 1611 / 180 / 00

Anthony Hamilton

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights10

Damian Grabowski

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3