Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Adam Wieczorek won · U-DEC R3

Elo1363

Elo1491

Anthony HamiltonvsAdam WieczorekUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Adam Wieczorek won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Anthony Hamilton wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Adam Wieczorek wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hamilton at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Hamilton enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anthony Hamilton has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Adam Wieczorek has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Hamilton

Red Corner

Adam Wieczorek

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1363

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'5"

193.04 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony HamiltonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Feb 16

KOvs Damian Grabowski · Jul 16

SUBvs Francis Ngannou · Dec 16

KOvs Marcel Fortuna · Feb 17

KOvs Daniel Spitz · Sep 17

latest

Adam Wieczorek

oldest →

SUBvs Arjan Bhullar · Apr 18

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony HamiltonMetricAdam Wieczorek

3.91

Strikes / min

1.68

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

1.87

45%

Strike defense

48%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

0.41

78%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.89Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony HamiltonAdam Wieczorek

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Hamilton(10 fights)Adam Wieczorek(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.6|Blue +128.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony HamiltonTargetAdam Wieczorek

By target zone

21% acc · 19%

Head

31% acc · 55%

95% acc · 66%

Body

94% acc · 36%

71% acc · 16%

Leg

80% acc · 10%

By position

31% acc · 34%

Distance

34% acc · 62%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 26%

100% acc · 47%

Ground

71% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Hamilton rounds

even

Adam Wieczorek rounds

Round 1Anthony Hamilton edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control4:11

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Adam Wieczorek edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:44

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 3Adam Wieczorek edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:03

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 57

Sig Strikes

42 / 95

55.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

44 / 75

Total Strikes

73 / 129

2 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:58

Ctrl Time

2:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adam Wieczorek	11 / 17	19 / 26	0 / 0
1	Anthony Hamilton	19 / 26	27 / 38	1 / 2
2	Adam Wieczorek	10 / 29	28 / 49	0 / 0
2	Anthony Hamilton	4 / 7	7 / 10	1 / 1
3	Adam Wieczorek	21 / 49	26 / 54	0 / 1
3	Anthony Hamilton	9 / 24	10 / 27	0 / 6

Anthony Hamilton

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights10

Adam Wieczorek

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights3