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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Ian Entwistle won · SUB R1
Elo1399
Elo1490
Ian Entwistle

Anthony BirchakvsIan EntwistleUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Ian Entwistle won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:04

Model Prediction: Ian Entwistle wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Ian Entwistle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Entwistle at +248 American odds

+$248 profit

$348 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Birchak is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ian Entwistle has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Ian Entwistle threatens submissions; Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Anthony Birchak has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Anthony Birchak has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Anthony Birchak has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Birchak
Red Corner
VS
Ian Entwistle
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+248
(29%)
1399
Elo
1490
40
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'5"
175.26 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony BirchakL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Joe Soto · Jun 15
L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15
W
vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Gustavo Lopez · Nov 20
L
KOvs Tony Gravely · Apr 21
latest
Ian EntwistleL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 14
L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony BirchakMetricIan Entwistle
3.93
Strikes / min
0.11
3.67
Strikes absorbed / min
7.36
56%
Strike defense
31%
0.48
TDs / 15 min
0.00
61%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
12.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26Δ 7.51 — meaningful gap-7.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1484Strikes— vs 1.0Takedowns— vs 0.0Sub Atts— vs 3.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Anthony BirchakIan Entwistle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Anthony Birchak(6 fights)Ian Entwistle(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -91.5|Blue +91.5
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony BirchakTargetIan Entwistle

By target zone

4
50% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
4
57% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Anthony Birchak rounds
0
even
0
Ian Entwistle rounds
Round 1Anthony Birchak edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control0:26
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 9
Sig Strikes
0 / 2
44%
Sig Str %
0%
5 / 12
Total Strikes
0 / 2
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
3
0
Rev
0
0:26
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ian Entwistle0 / 20 / 20 / 03
1Anthony Birchak4 / 95 / 121 / 10

Anthony Birchak

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6

Ian Entwistle

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach—
Fights3