Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Birchak won · S-DEC R3

Elo1399

Elo1357

Anthony BirchakvsDileno LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Birchak won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnthony Birchak: Well-roundedvsDileno Lopes: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Dileno Lopes wins(78.0%)

Actual result: Anthony Birchak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dileno Lopes at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Birchak enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dileno Lopes has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dileno Lopes (53.5%).
Anthony Birchak has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anthony Birchak

Red Corner

Dileno Lopes

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1399

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anthony BirchakL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14

KOvs Joe Soto · Jun 15

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15

SUBvs Gustavo Lopez · Nov 20

KOvs Tony Gravely · Apr 21

latest

Dileno Lopes

oldest →

vs Reginaldo Vieira · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anthony BirchakMetricDileno Lopes

3.93

Strikes / min

2.37

3.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

56%

Strike defense

53%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

2.50

61%

Takedown defense

100%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anthony BirchakDileno Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anthony Birchak(6 fights)Dileno Lopes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +41.6|Blue -41.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anthony BirchakTargetDileno Lopes

By target zone

22% acc · 39%

Head

30% acc · 88%

62% acc · 44%

Body

20% acc · 8%

78% acc · 17%

Leg

33% acc · 4%

By position

35% acc · 73%

Distance

24% acc · 72%

43% acc · 22%

Clinch

58% acc · 28%

40% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anthony Birchak rounds

even

Dileno Lopes rounds

Round 1Dileno Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:38

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:27Control

Round 2Anthony Birchak edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 3Anthony Birchak edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:11

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 112

Sig Strikes

25 / 87

42%

Sig Str %

27%

101 / 175

Total Strikes

35 / 98

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 12

—

TD %

9.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:19

Ctrl Time

5:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dileno Lopes	2 / 10	8 / 17	2 / 7
1	Anthony Birchak	11 / 19	50 / 60	0 / 0
2	Dileno Lopes	10 / 29	12 / 31	0 / 2
2	Anthony Birchak	15 / 34	34 / 54	0 / 0
3	Dileno Lopes	13 / 48	15 / 50	0 / 3
3	Anthony Birchak	15 / 59	17 / 61	0 / 0

Anthony Birchak

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Dileno Lopes

Stance—

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2