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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Michelle Waterson won · SUB R3
Elo1363
Angela Magana
Elo1493

Angela MaganavsMichelle WatersonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michelle Waterson won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:38

Model Prediction: Angela Magana wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Michelle Waterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Angela Magana at +650 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Angela Magana
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
+650
(13%)
Vegas Odds
-1000
(91%)
1363
Elo
1493
42
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Angela MaganaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Tecia Torres · Dec 14
L
KOvs Amanda Cooper · Dec 17
latest
Michelle Waterson
oldest →
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19
L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19
L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20
W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Angela MaganaMetricMichelle Waterson
1.53
Strikes / min
—
4.92
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42%
Strike defense
—
0.40
TDs / 15 min
—
28%
Takedown defense
—
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes37.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Angela MaganaMichelle Waterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Angela Magana(3 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -130.5|Blue +130.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Angela Magana

StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights3

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3