Featherweight

3 Rounds

Makwan Amirkhani won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1354

Elo1453

Andy OglevsMakwan AmirkhaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · Saturday, January 24, 2015Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Makwan Amirkhani won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:08

Model Prediction: Andy Ogle wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Makwan Amirkhani wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andy Ogle at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andy Ogle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andy Ogle has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andy Ogle

Red Corner

Makwan Amirkhani

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1354

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andy OgleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Akira Corassani · Sep 12

vs Josh Grispi · Feb 13

vs Cole Miller · Oct 13

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Feb 14

vs Maximo Blanco · May 14

latest

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andy OgleMetricMakwan Amirkhani

2.24

Strikes / min

1.33

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

50%

Strike defense

46%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

3.96

58%

Takedown defense

35%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andy OgleMakwan Amirkhani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andy Ogle(6 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -99.3|Blue +99.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andy OgleTargetMakwan Amirkhani

By target zone

Head

83% acc · 83%

Body

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

Distance

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

Ground

80% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andy Ogle rounds

even

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

Round 1Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 0

Sig Strikes

6 / 7

—

Sig Str %

85%

0 / 0

Total Strikes

6 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Makwan Amirkhani	6 / 7	6 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Andy Ogle	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0

Andy Ogle

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14