Featherweight

3 Rounds

Andy Ogle won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1352

Andy OglevsJosh GrispiUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · Saturday, February 16, 2013London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Andy Ogle won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andy Ogle wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Andy Ogle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andy Ogle at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andy Ogle enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Josh Grispi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andy Ogle has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Josh Grispi has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Andy Ogle

Red Corner

Josh Grispi

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1354

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andy OgleL5 streak

oldest →

vs Akira Corassani · Sep 12

vs Cole Miller · Oct 13

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Feb 14

vs Maximo Blanco · May 14

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jan 15

latest

Josh GrispiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dustin Poirier · Jan 11

KOvs George Roop · Jun 11

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andy OgleMetricJosh Grispi

2.24

Strikes / min

1.44

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

50%

Strike defense

50%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.97

58%

Takedown defense

16%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-2.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andy OgleJosh Grispi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andy Ogle(6 fights)Josh Grispi(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andy OgleTargetJosh Grispi

By target zone

31% acc · 53%

Head

0% acc

89% acc · 42%

Body

50% acc · 29%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

71% acc · 71%

By position

28% acc · 42%

Distance

24% acc · 86%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

85% acc · 58%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andy Ogle rounds

even

Josh Grispi rounds

Round 1Andy Ogle edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control4:28

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Andy Ogle edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control4:15

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Andy Ogle edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control4:29

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 42

Sig Strikes

7 / 26

39.3%

Sig Str %

29%

119 / 153

Total Strikes

19 / 38

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

13:12

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Grispi	1 / 11	4 / 14	1 / 1	1
1	Andy Ogle	3 / 7	42 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Josh Grispi	4 / 8	6 / 10	0 / 1	0
2	Andy Ogle	2 / 12	39 / 50	0 / 0	0
3	Josh Grispi	2 / 7	9 / 14	0 / 0	1
3	Andy Ogle	14 / 23	38 / 55	2 / 2	0

Andy Ogle

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Josh Grispi

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4