Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cole Miller won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1359

Andy OglevsCole MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · Saturday, October 26, 2013Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Cole Miller won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andy Ogle wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Cole Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andy Ogle at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andy Ogle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cole Miller enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andy Ogle has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cole Miller has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Andy Ogle

Red Corner

Cole Miller

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1354

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'1"

175.26 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andy OgleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Akira Corassani · Sep 12

vs Josh Grispi · Feb 13

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Feb 14

vs Maximo Blanco · May 14

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jan 15

latest

Cole MillerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Max Holloway · Feb 15

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16

vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andy OgleMetricCole Miller

2.24

Strikes / min

3.00

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

50%

Strike defense

59%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.60

58%

Takedown defense

38%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.01evenly matched on net striking-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andy OgleCole Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andy Ogle(6 fights)Cole Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.6|Blue +4.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andy OgleTargetCole Miller

By target zone

41% acc · 52%

Head

50% acc · 81%

67% acc · 30%

Body

80% acc · 19%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

0% acc

By position

55% acc · 85%

Distance

46% acc · 76%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

44% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andy Ogle rounds

even

Cole Miller rounds

Round 1Cole Miller edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:11

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:57Control

Round 2Andy Ogle edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control2:46

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Andy Ogle edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control3:47

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 51

Sig Strikes

21 / 40

49%

Sig Str %

48.3%

112 / 138

Total Strikes

55 / 75

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:44

Ctrl Time

4:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cole Miller	12 / 18	18 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Andy Ogle	2 / 8	44 / 51	1 / 2	0
2	Cole Miller	3 / 8	24 / 30	0 / 0	1
2	Andy Ogle	4 / 6	18 / 21	0 / 3	0
3	Cole Miller	6 / 14	13 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Andy Ogle	21 / 37	50 / 66	1 / 1	0

Andy Ogle

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12