Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andrew Sanchez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1410

Elo1379

Andrew SanchezvsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Andrew Sanchez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrew Sanchez: WrestlervsTrevor Smith: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Andrew Sanchez wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Andrew Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Sanchez at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrew Sanchez has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrew Sanchez

Red Corner

Trevor Smith

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1410

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrew SanchezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 19

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 19

KOvs Wellington Turman · Aug 20

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Jan 21

KOvs Bruno Silva · Oct 21

latest

Trevor SmithL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joe Gigliotti · Aug 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrew SanchezMetricTrevor Smith

4.30

Strikes / min

3.29

5.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

50%

Strike defense

51%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

1.70

100%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrew SanchezTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrew Sanchez(10 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.3|Blue -31.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrew SanchezTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

30% acc · 73%

Head

20% acc · 33%

75% acc · 20%

Body

96% acc · 36%

83% acc · 7%

Leg

95% acc · 31%

By position

31% acc · 74%

Distance

33% acc · 62%

79% acc · 26%

Clinch

88% acc · 36%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrew Sanchez rounds

even

Trevor Smith rounds

Round 1Andrew Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:15

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:11

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 204

Sig Strikes

61 / 141

36.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

79 / 209

Total Strikes

66 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Trevor Smith	12 / 40	15 / 44	0 / 0
1	Andrew Sanchez	28 / 76	31 / 79	0 / 0
2	Trevor Smith	28 / 54	28 / 54	0 / 0
2	Andrew Sanchez	25 / 78	25 / 78	0 / 0
3	Trevor Smith	21 / 47	23 / 51	0 / 2
3	Andrew Sanchez	21 / 50	23 / 52	0 / 0

Andrew Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12