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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Janes won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1410

Elo1491

Andrew SanchezvsRyan JanesUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Janes won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:58

Style matchupAndrew Sanchez: WrestlervsRyan Janes: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Andrew Sanchez wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Ryan Janes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Sanchez at -600 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Janes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Andrew Sanchez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Andrew Sanchez has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrew Sanchez

Red Corner

Ryan Janes

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1410

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrew SanchezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 19

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 19

KOvs Wellington Turman · Aug 20

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Jan 21

KOvs Bruno Silva · Oct 21

latest

Ryan JanesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Keith Berish · Dec 16

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Feb 17

vs Jack Marshman · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrew SanchezMetricRyan Janes

4.30

Strikes / min

7.69

5.10

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

50%

Strike defense

59%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

0.35

100%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.80Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrew SanchezRyan Janes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrew Sanchez(10 fights)Ryan Janes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.1|Blue +81.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +92.0|Blue -92.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrew SanchezTargetRyan Janes

By target zone

52% acc · 94%

Head

121

54% acc · 76%

60% acc · 6%

Body

91% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

50% acc · 83%

Distance

131

56% acc · 82%

64% acc · 9%

Clinch

80% acc · 18%

78% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrew Sanchez rounds

even

Ryan Janes rounds

Round 1Andrew Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns1

Control1:10

Knockdowns2

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Ryan Janes edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns2

Control0:55

97Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Ryan Janes edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 183

Sig Strikes

159 / 267

40.3%

Sig Str %

58.3%

113 / 200

Total Strikes

200 / 312

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:05

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Janes	39 / 91	50 / 102	0 / 0
1	Andrew Sanchez	57 / 102	72 / 117	1 / 1
2	Ryan Janes	97 / 141	120 / 164	0 / 0
2	Andrew Sanchez	38 / 75	40 / 77	2 / 4
3	Ryan Janes	23 / 35	30 / 46	0 / 0
3	Andrew Sanchez	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 2

Andrew Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Ryan Janes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4