Middleweight

3 Rounds

Makhmud Muradov won · KO/TKO

Elo1410

Elo1499

Andrew SanchezvsMakhmud MuradovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · Saturday, January 23, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Makhmud Muradov won

KO/TKO

Style matchupAndrew Sanchez: WrestlervsMakhmud Muradov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Makhmud Muradov wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Makhmud Muradov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makhmud Muradov at -143 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Makhmud Muradov is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Andrew Sanchez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Makhmud Muradov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andrew Sanchez has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrew Sanchez

Red Corner

Makhmud Muradov

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-143

(59%)

1410

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrew Sanchez

oldest →

vs Markus Perez · Aug 18

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 19

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 19

KOvs Wellington Turman · Aug 20

KOvs Bruno Silva · Oct 21

latest

Makhmud Muradov

oldest →

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Sep 19

KOvs Trevor Smith · Dec 19

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 21

vs Caio Borralho · Oct 22

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrew SanchezMetricMakhmud Muradov

4.30

Strikes / min

4.21

5.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

50%

Strike defense

61%

2.55

TDs / 15 min

3.03

100%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.80Δ 2.44 — meaningful gap+1.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrew SanchezMakhmud Muradov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrew Sanchez(10 fights)Makhmud Muradov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -88.9|Blue +88.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrew SanchezTargetMakhmud Muradov

By target zone

29% acc · 71%

Head

37% acc · 66%

53% acc · 17%

Body

73% acc · 20%

75% acc · 13%

Leg

85% acc · 14%

By position

34% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 91%

Clinch

71% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrew Sanchez rounds

even

Makhmud Muradov rounds

Round 1Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:22

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 141

Sig Strikes

79 / 174

35%

Sig Str %

44.7%

50 / 144

Total Strikes

82 / 177

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Makhmud Muradov	33 / 68	34 / 69	0 / 2
1	Andrew Sanchez	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 1
2	Makhmud Muradov	26 / 55	28 / 57	0 / 0
2	Andrew Sanchez	18 / 64	20 / 67	0 / 1
3	Makhmud Muradov	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 0
3	Andrew Sanchez	12 / 38	12 / 38	0 / 0

Andrew Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Makhmud Muradov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6