← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Lyman Good won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1355

Elo1492

Andrew CraigvsLyman GoodUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Lyman Good won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:37

Model Prediction: Andrew Craig wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Lyman Good wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Craig at +230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyman Good has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Andrew Craig

Red Corner

Lyman Good

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1355

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrew CraigL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12

vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13

vs Chris Leben · Jul 13

SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14

latest

Lyman Good

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jul 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Nov 18

SUBvs Demian Maia · Feb 19

KOvs Chance Rencountre · Nov 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrew CraigMetricLyman Good

2.39

Strikes / min

5.34

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

50%

Strike defense

63%

0.53

TDs / 15 min

0.27

72%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62Δ 1.95 — meaningful gap+1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrew CraigLyman Good

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrew Craig(7 fights)Lyman Good(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.5|Blue +137.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrew CraigTargetLyman Good

By target zone

14% acc · 60%

Head

47% acc · 75%

29% acc · 10%

Body

70% acc · 13%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

88% acc · 13%

By position

16% acc · 75%

Distance

47% acc · 76%

83% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

69% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrew Craig rounds

even

Lyman Good rounds

Round 1Lyman Good edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lyman Good edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 97

Sig Strikes

55 / 106

20.5%

Sig Str %

52.5%

24 / 101

Total Strikes

64 / 115

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lyman Good	30 / 63	30 / 63	0 / 0
1	Andrew Craig	11 / 59	14 / 62	0 / 0
2	Lyman Good	25 / 43	34 / 52	0 / 0
2	Andrew Craig	9 / 38	10 / 39	0 / 0

Andrew Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7

Lyman Good

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6