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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tom Aspinall won · SUB

Elo1492

Elo1516

Andrei ArlovskivsTom AspinallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

SUB

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsTom Aspinall: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(88.8%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tom Aspinall has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Tom Aspinall

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1492

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Tom Aspinall

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricTom Aspinall

3.82

Strikes / min

7.63

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

57%

Strike defense

56%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

2.62

76%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap+4.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiTom Aspinall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.7|Blue +23.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetTom Aspinall

By target zone

20% acc · 40%

Head

50% acc · 59%

78% acc · 35%

Body

86% acc · 16%

83% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

35% acc · 85%

Distance

60% acc · 65%

50% acc · 15%

Clinch

65% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Tom Aspinall rounds

Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 2Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 55

Sig Strikes

37 / 60

34%

Sig Str %

63.5%

22 / 57

Total Strikes

41 / 64

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Aspinall	33 / 54	37 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Andrei Arlovski	16 / 42	18 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Tom Aspinall	4 / 6	4 / 6	1 / 1	1
2	Andrei Arlovski	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 0	0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10